The fifth and final day of the Royal Ascot Festival serves up a seven-race salvo to ensure the biggest meeting of the summer months goes out with a bang. The Group 1 feature comes in the shape of the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, which sees a field of international sprinting stars battle over six furlongs. Just over an hour after that top-tier event, the six-furlong course is back in action for one of the most coveted sprint handicaps of the season, as a maximum field of 28 goes to post in the Wokingham Stakes.
This Class 2 contest, offering £175,000 (2024) in total prize money, is open to all runners aged three and older and regularly attracts a diverse field, hailing from yards both large and small.
Since making its debut in 1813, the Wokingham has served as one of the biggest betting heats of the meeting, as punters attempt to crack a code which requires consideration of the draw, weight, age, current form, and more. Here, we look back at the 25 winners of the race between 2000 and 2023 (two winners in 2003 due to a dead heat) and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help zero in on the winner.
Age of Winner
Whilst open to runners aged three and up, it is rare to see one so young come home in front – Rohaan became the first three-year-old winner since 1987 when landing the 2021 edition. At the other end of the spectrum, only two horses aged seven or older have claimed the Wokingham since 1980, including 2017’s eight-year-old champ Out Do. As we can see, the four-to-five age range boasts the best record by quite some margin, having supplied 21 of the 25 (84%) winners in our sample.
Weight
The above chart suggests a strong bias against those lower in the weights. However, this doesn’t present an accurate picture as, in most years, few runners carry less than 8st7lb. It is more informative to divide the weight category into sections beginning at the top of the weights. Doing so, we find that six of 25 winners (24%) fell in the 9st7lb-9st12lb range, 12 (48%) carried 9st1lb to 9st6lb, with the remaining seven (28%) carrying 9st or less.
The Draw
There is no strong pattern at first glance, with winners emerging from high, middle, and low draws. However, a clearer picture emerges when we split the draw into groups of 10; 12 winners (48%) were drawn in stalls 1-10, five (20%) in stalls 11-10, and eight (32%) in stalls 21-30. Those results suggest a bias against those drawn in the centre of the track, as does the fact that 11 of 25 winners (44%) were drawn within four stalls of the near or far rail.
Rating of Winner
In common with many leading handicaps, the quality of horse it takes to prevail in the Wokingham is trending upward – rising from an average of around 95 in the early part of the 21st century to over 105. In the 12 editions between 2000 and 2011, seven winners had a rating below 100. Between 2012 and 2023, only two were rated below 100.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
The results in our sample show that, whilst it isn’t impossible to win the Wokingham on the back of a subpar performance, a positive recent outing is preferable. 19 of the 25 (76%) winners finished in the first four last time out, whilst only three finished outside the first 10.
Previous Handicap Starts
As is generally the case in ultra-competitive handicaps such as this, those with fewer handicap outings under their belts have held the edge in the Wokingham. 20 of the 25 (80%) winners had 10 or fewer handicap starts on their CV. The major outlier in our results was the eight-year-old Out Do, who thwarted a field of younger, less exposed rivals to come home in front on his 29th handicap start.
Fate of the Favourite
A total of 5 winning favourites from 24 editions represents a strike rate of 20.83%. That’s significantly below the average of around 30% across all races but a respectable total given the big field nature of the event. That percentage also proved sufficient to take supporters of the market leader into the black, with a £1 level stakes punt on the jolly returning a profit of £4.25.
Overall, nine of 25 winners returned a single-figure SP; nine were between 10/1 and 18/1, with the remaining seven 20/1 or bigger. 33/1 shots Dandy Boy and Bachus caused the biggest shocks when scoring in 2012 and 2018, respectively.
Other Stats
- Three-time winner Johnny Murtagh topped the jockey table, followed by Ryan Moore with two wins.
- With two wins apiece, David Evans and Kevin Ryan were the only trainers with more than one success to their name.
- Danetime (Baltic King 2006, Dandy Boy 2012) and Mayson (Rohaan 2021 & 2022) were the only two sires with more than one win.
- 20 of 25 winners (80%) had previously won over the six-furlong trip.
- 19 of 25 winners (76%) had previously scored at Class 2 level or above.
- 8 of 25 winners (32%) had previously won at Ascot.
- 23 of 25 (92%) had run within the last 50 days.
- 17 of 25 (68%) had previously lined up in a race rated at Listed level or above.
