The 1000 Guineas is likely to give us plenty of clues about who might win this year’s Epsom Derby. Actually picking the winner of this Newmarket classic is not an easy task though. Not since 2016 has the favourite won the race. Could that all change in 2025?
Last year was definitely one that put a smile on the face of those taking wagers on the race via these UK horse betting platforms. Roger Varian saddled Elmalka won the race at odds of 28/1. That was the third time in four runnings of this race that the winner had been returned at odds of 10/1. The other was Mawj in 2023 and he was 9/1.
Why is the 1000 Guineas such a hard race to bet on? Last year, Fallen Angel was the 100/30 favourite but only finished eighth after hanging left and then being carried out right.
Six of the last eight winners of this classic did so after losing their most recent race. 2024 winner Elmalka had never even won on turf. Elmalka’s only victory had come on the all-weather at Southwell in a class 5 contest. Both Guineas winners last year made their debuts on the all-weather so you never know who you might end up seeing at Southwell or Kempton.
The 1000 Guineas was her first time running over further than seven furlongs and their debut over a mile saw the filly stay on strongly to win the race. Was it a fluke though? Three other races in 2024 all produced a fourth place finish.
There are so many questions that need to be answered in the 1000 Guineas. Can a horse last out the mile and have they trained on? A good two-year-old doesn’t necessarily continue to be successful a year later. Will they cope with the dip and then rising ground at Newmarket? Backing a horse that has already won on the track is always advisable.
This is a race that Charlie Appebly is yet to train the winner of. He’s had great success in the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby, can he repeat that success with his fillies. This may well be the year in which he saddles his first 1000 Guineas winner. He trains Desert Flower who is generally 11/8 with bookmakers.
Desert Flower has had four races and won them all. Not just that, three of her wins have come at Newmarket, and two of his victories have been in group races run over a mile. Her most recent run was last October when winning the bet365 Mile which was impressively won by five-and-a-half lengths.
The going is always important and Desert Flower has won on both good to firm at and good to soft. Two other wins came on good ground so ground conditions in May should not be anything to be too worried about.
Desert Flower is also the 8/1 favourite to win the Oaks and could well be one of the stars of 2025.
Not since 2021 has Aidan O’Brien trained the winner of the 1000 Guineas. He has saddled the winner on seven previous occasions and has some strong contenders for this year’s race. Top of the list appears to be Lake Victoria who can be backed at 6/1 to win.
The filly has won all five of her races and that includes the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. That’s one of the two wins Lake Victoria has had at Newmarket. Her last run as a two-year-old was across the Atlantic at Del Mar. Lake Victoria landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf which was run over a mile so we know this runner can handle this distance.
O’Brien is also due to have Bedtime Story run in this race and the filly could be good each-way value at 20/1. Two group races were won last year and was reported to be lame when losing her unbeaten record in the Moyglare Stud Stakes.
At 7/1 is the Frankel filly, Red Letter. The grey is available at 7/1 to win this classic. Her only win came in a maiden at the Curragh and both of her other races (including her debut run) saw Lake Victoria in opposition.
The second of their meetings was in the Moyglare Stud Stakes with Red Letter two lengths behind Lake Victoria. Although only finishing fourth, Red Letter lost her position just before the final furlong so could have finished closer. That was run over seven furlongs so the extra furlong here might just see some more improvement achieved.
There’s plenty to look forward to in this year’s 1000 Guineas. Will we see another surprise win or finally a favourite storms home.
