Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby 2025: 5 Things to Look Out For

Posted on
Dirt Horse Race Finish
28
Apr

The 151st Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday 3rd May. America’s biggest horse race is arguably a little underappreciated by European racing audiences, but it almost always delivers on drama. Look back at last year’s thrilling climax, where a three-way tussle for supremacy saw Mystik Dan beat Fierceness and Forever Young by a nose, for evidence of that.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby has a different makeup this time around. And there are some intriguing talking points in the lead-up to the race. Below, we have picked out five interesting things to look out for, whether you are betting on the Kentucky Derby or simply curious to watch the action:

Bob Baffert’s Return

It would take a book to explain all the reasons why trainer Bob Baffert was suspended for three years, not to mention how he is perceived by the racing public. Yet, it’s enough to say that he was suspended for medical violations and has served his time away from professional action. One cannot overlook his CV, either. He is a six-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, and he has a fair chance of making an unprecedented seven wins with one of Citizen Bull or Rodriguez. It’s going to be interesting to see how the fans react to Baffert, not least if one of his horses wins the thing.

The Performance of Journalism

We have a clear favourite for the Kentucky Derby in the shape of Journalism. There’s plenty to like about his resume, including a big win at the Santa Anita Derby that shot him to the top of the betting markets. His overall record of 4 wins and 1 3rd place from 5 starts is all the more impressive if you watch him in action, particularly in the Santa Anita Derby, where he had to respond to his jockey’s (Umberto Rispoli) commands to get him out of trouble. He’s a deserved favourite for the race (odds of 3/1), but that counts for little.

A Question of Points

The prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby – officially termed the Road to the Kentucky Derby – are not the best guide for backing a winner. Since their inception in 2013, only Nyquist has led the ranking system and gone on to win the Derby. While there are reasons not to pay too much attention to the system (trainers and owners will be happy enough to swerve races once their horse has qualified), it all feels a bit counterintuitive. Burnham Square won the most points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but it tells us very little. Perhaps it will be time to redesign the system.

The Japanese Dream

American-bred horses are not alone in competing for the Kentucky Derby, although they have a monopoly on success. The opening up of the “international route” in recent years has caused Japanese owners to try their luck, with mixed results. Forever Young came tantalisingly close to doing the business last year, though, so that has fortified opinions about the two Japanese runners in this year’s race, Luxor Café and Admire Daytona. The betting markets point to the former as the most likely (he’s 3rd favourite with several bookies), but, in essence, both have a sense of the unknown about them.

Another Long Shot Winner?

We spoke of the deserved favourite status of Journalism earlier, yet it’s worth remembering that betting market leaders have not won this race in several years. Some have come close, but value-hunting bettors have had plenty of success in recent runnings, not least those who backed Rich Strike at 80/1 in 2022. There’s always value in the race, even when you look at horses being placed. If you look at the card for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, there are at least eight who look highly capable, and there’s always, always, room for a shock in this race.