The big race at the Curragh on Oaks weekend followed the script, as Epsom heroine Minnie Hauk became the sixteenth filly to complete the English/Irish Oaks double. Sent off at odds of just 2/11 – the shortest-price Irish Oaks favourite in the 21st century – the daughter of Frankel was entitled to win. And win she did, with the performance impressing enough to shorten her odds to 10/1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
In Front, But Not Impressive?
While Minnie Hauk got the job done, not everyone was impressed by this display. A bare reading of the one-and-a-quarter-length verdict over Wemightakedlongway suggested that this win was a notch below her Epsom effort, considering she had finished just over three lengths ahead of that Joseph O’Brien runner in June.
In fairness to the filly, she has never been the type to shoot clear of the field with a burst of acceleration, falling more into the dour-staying mould. As such, she did as well as could be expected to grind it out in a race run at a sedate pace.
Whether this display warrants her position near the head of the Arc market is tough to assess. Now a dual Classic winner with an admirable attitude, she is hard to dismiss. However, only three three-year-old fillies have won the Arc in the last 40 years – Danedream, Enable, and Zarkava.
Yet to hit the heights of that trio, Minnie Hauk’s position towards the top of the market is a result of her own performances and the lack of an outstanding contender for this year’s race.
Fillies Tough to Split
While only three three-year-old fillies have won the Arc since 1982, the record of fillies and mares of all ages is excellent. Between 2008 and 2024, a filly or a mare claimed nine of the 17 editions.
With three of the top four positions in the market occupied by fillies or mares, the odds suggest that 2025 may be another successful year for the fairer sex.
First and joint second in most betting lists are a duo who were separated by just 1¼l in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in June. Epsom Oaks runner-up Whirl would not be denied that day, as she mastered the Andrew Balding-trained Kalpana, who had topped the Arc market for much of the winter and has returned favouritism after finishing second in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. With Wemightakedlongway finishing a 3¾l fourth that day, the form is on par with that of the English and Irish Oaks, albeit over a 2f shorter trip. There was no fluke about Whirl’s win, but the 12-pound weight advantage she enjoyed will drop to seven pounds in the Arc.
Further Classic Winners in the Ballydoyle Team
First successful with Dylan Thomas in 2007 and most recently with Found in 2016, Aidan O’Brien invariably sends his most talented 1m4f stars in pursuit of this prize. In 2025, Lambourn and Jan Brueghel stand out among the other Ballydoyle entries.
Since 2000, Sinndar, Sea The Stars, Workforce, and Golden Horn all followed up their Epsom Derby victory with a successful trip to France. Lambourn may be set the task of joining that exclusive club in 2025. An impressive winner at Epsom by just less than four lengths, the son of Australia followed up with a more workmanlike display at the Curragh. Two pounds clear of Minnie Hauk on ratings, he would concede four pounds to his stablemate in the Arc.
Both Dylan Thomas and Found were four years old when they claimed the Arc. Could O’Brien’s best chance lie with his older runners once again? The 2024 St Leger hero, Jan Brueghel, might lead the charge for the four-year-olds in 2025. Beaten only twice in seven career outings, he displayed his ability over 1m4f in the Coronation Cup and was just 2¾ lengths behind Kalpana when finishing fourth in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over the weekend.
2024 Fourth and Rising Star Fly the Flag for France
Hailing from the yard of eight-time Arc winner Andre Fabre, and having finished a solid fourth in 2024, Sosie boasts solid credentials for the home team. Already a Group 1 winner over this trip in the 2024 Prix Niel, he bagged back-to-back Group 1s to kick off 2025 before coming unstuck in a messy edition of the Coral-Eclipse.
Successful with Calandagan and Goliath in the last two renewals of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Francis-Henri Graffard has yet to claim the biggest 1m4f contest in his homeland. As geldings, Calandagan and Goliath aren’t eligible for the Arc. However, if his three-year-old Daryz continues his upward trajectory, he may not need them. By Sea The Stars and out of Hong Kong Vase winner Daryakana, he’s bred for the job and is unbeaten in four career outings. In a wide-open year, it’s easy to see punters latching onto his attractive profile.
With three months to go until the big day, the Arc picture remains murky. Minnie Hauk is favourite for now, but that may change following Trials Day in September.
