For most trainers, seven winners over the festive period, including two at Grade 1 level, would provide cause for celebration. However, Willie Mullins isn’t like most trainers. For the Closutton maestro, a tally of seven winners from 74 runners between the 26th and 29th of December represented the worst yuletide return in a decade.
Big Guns Beaten
High-profile contests on both sides of the Irish Sea contributed to the below-par performance of the Mullins yard. The first Grade 1 blow came in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. Superstar mare Lossiemouth headed the betting for the Champion Hurdle on the morning of the race. Not long after a laboured two-and-a-half-length second-place finish to a resurgent Constitution Hill, she was out to 7/1, with many suggesting she may now stick to mares company. Boxing Day also brought Grade 2 defeats for Lady Vega Allen, Sony Bill, Willy De Houelle, and Murcia.
Going in the same Rich Ricci silks as Lossiemouth, 2024 Arkle Chase hero Gaelic Warrior was the next to fluff his lines at the top level. Sent off favourite for the Paddy Rewards Club Chase on the 27th of December, he finished ahead of stablemates Dinoblue, Blue Lord, and Gentleman De Mee but was no match for shock 28/1 winner Solness. The Grade 1 disappointment continued in the Paddy Power Future Champions Chase, where Karafan, Karniquet and Sea Of Sands finished fourth, fifth, and pulled up.
Perhaps the biggest shock came later in the week when defending champion State Man, and the 4/9 favourite for the race, was beaten out of sight by Brighterdaysahead in the Neville Hotels Hurdle.
Overall, eleven Willie Mullins-trained favourites tasted defeat between the 26th and 29th of December. Punters placing a £1 level stakes bet on all 74 Mullins runners would have received a rather un-festive loss of £56.06.
That level stakes return was the worst ever for the Mullins yard between the 26th and 29th of December. A strike of 9% was the lowest in a decade and only the third time Mullins has dipped below 20% over the Christmas period.
But…. It Wasn’t All Bad
Mullins may not have enjoyed the festive season as much as in previous years. However, there were bright spots amidst the gloom. Impaire Et Passe continued his ascent through the chasing ranks to hand Daryl Jacob a final Grade 1 success in the Faugheen Novice Chase. The big highlight then came in the Savills Chase when Galopin Des Champs put the pretenders to his staying chase throne to the sword in scintillating style.
Bouncing Back in the New Year
Whilst disappointing for the yard, many fans will enjoy seeing the major prizes shared around a little more than in recent seasons. However, those expecting this trend to continue may be disappointed.
Looking back to Mullins’ previous worst Festive period in 2019 (when measured by return to level stakes), the yard bounced back from a 16% strike rate in Irish jumps contests for December to post a 33% strike rate in January 2020. The trainer’s figures for January 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 24%, 29%, 41%, and 42%.
That latest 42% January rate preceded a February which saw the handler claim all eight Grade 1 contests at the Dublin Racing Festival before going on to dominate the Cheltenham Festival once again.
Early indications suggest Mullins may be ready to rebound from his short spell in the relative doldrums. The trainer sent out 14 runners on the 1st of January 2025. Six of the 14 won, for a strike rate of 42.86%. He may have failed to hit his usual lofty standards at the back end of 2024, but don’t be surprised if Mullins is the man we are all talking about at the major spring festivals.
